central limit theorem
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Avoiding the Price of Adaptivity: Inference in Linear Contextual Bandits via Stability
Praharaj, Samya, Khamaru, Koulik
Statistical inference in contextual bandits is complicated by the adaptive, non-i.i.d. nature of the data. A growing body of work has shown that classical least-squares inference may fail under adaptive sampling, and that constructing valid confidence intervals for linear functionals of the model parameter typically requires paying an unavoidable inflation of order $\sqrt{d \log T}$. This phenomenon -- often referred to as the price of adaptivity -- highlights the inherent difficulty of reliable inference under general contextual bandit policies. A key structural property that circumvents this limitation is the \emph{stability} condition of Lai and Wei, which requires the empirical feature covariance to concentrate around a deterministic limit. When stability holds, the ordinary least-squares estimator satisfies a central limit theorem, and classical Wald-type confidence intervals -- designed for i.i.d. data -- become asymptotically valid even under adaptation, \emph{without} incurring the $\sqrt{d \log T}$ price of adaptivity. In this paper, we propose and analyze a penalized EXP4 algorithm for linear contextual bandits. Our first main result shows that this procedure satisfies the Lai--Wei stability condition and therefore admits valid Wald-type confidence intervals for linear functionals. Our second result establishes that the same algorithm achieves regret guarantees that are minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors, demonstrating that stability and statistical efficiency can coexist within a single contextual bandit method. Finally, we complement our theory with simulations illustrating the empirical normality of the resulting estimators and the sharpness of the corresponding confidence intervals.
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Central Limit Theorem for ergodic averages of Markov chains \& the comparison of sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed distributions
Brešar, Miha, Mijatović, Aleksandar, Roberts, Gareth
Establishing central limit theorems (CLTs) for ergodic averages of Markov chains is a fundamental problem in probability and its applications. Since the seminal work~\cite{MR834478}, a vast literature has emerged on the sufficient conditions for such CLTs. To counterbalance this, the present paper provides verifiable necessary conditions for CLTs of ergodic averages of Markov chains on general state spaces. Our theory is based on drift conditions, which also yield lower bounds on the rates of convergence to stationarity in various metrics. The validity of the ergodic CLT is of particular importance for sampling algorithms, where it underpins the error analysis of estimators in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Although heavy-tailed sampling is of central importance in applications, the characterisation of the CLT and the convergence rates are theoretically poorly understood for almost all practically-used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In this setting our results provide sharp conditions on the validity of the ergodic CLT and establish convergence rates for large families of MCMC sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed targets. Our study includes a rather complete analyses for random walk Metropolis samplers (with finite- and infinite-variance proposals), Metropolis-adjusted and unadjusted Langevin algorithms and the stereographic projection sampler (as well as the independence sampler). By providing these sharp results via our practical drift conditions, our theory offers significant insights into the problems of algorithm selection and comparison for sampling heavy-tailed distributions (see short YouTube presentations~\cite{YouTube_talk} describing our \href{https://youtu.be/m2y7U4cEqy4}{\underline{theory}} and \href{https://youtu.be/w8I_oOweuko}{\underline{applications}}).
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An hybrid stochastic Newton algorithm for logistic regression
Bercu, Bernard, Fredes, Luis, Gbaguidi, Eméric
In this paper, we investigate a second-order stochastic algorithm for solving large-scale binary classification problems. We propose to make use of a new hybrid stochastic Newton algorithm that includes two weighted components in the Hessian matrix estimation: the first one coming from the natural Hessian estimate and the second associated with the stochastic gradient information. Our motivation comes from the fact that both parts evaluated at the true parameter of logistic regression, are equal to the Hessian matrix. This new formulation has several advantages and it enables us to prove the almost sure convergence of our stochastic algorithm to the true parameter. Moreover, we significantly improve the almost sure rate of convergence to the Hessian matrix. Furthermore, we establish the central limit theorem for our hybrid stochastic Newton algorithm. Finally, we show a surprising result on the almost sure convergence of the cumulative excess risk.
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Fermions and Supersymmetry in Neural Network Field Theories
Frank, Samuel, Halverson, James, Maiti, Anindita, Ruehle, Fabian
We introduce fermionic neural network field theories via Grassmann-valued neural networks. Free theories are obtained by a generalization of the Central Limit Theorem to Grassmann variables. This enables the realization of the free Dirac spinor at infinite width and a four fermion interaction at finite width. Yukawa couplings are introduced by breaking the statistical independence of the output weights for the fermionic and bosonic fields. A large class of interacting supersymmetric quantum mechanics and field theory models are introduced by super-affine transformations on the input that realize a superspace formalism.
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